Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Amalgamated Financial Corp. (AMAL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$86.17 - $263.03$137.29
Multi-Stage$56.33 - $61.59$58.91
Blended Fair Value$98.10
Current Price$27.15
Upside261.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.39%0.00%0.460.400.360.320.320.270.060.010.000.00
YoY Growth--15.41%10.01%12.36%-0.09%20.31%330.33%389.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.73%2.06%1.80%1.96%2.49%0.41%0.10%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.4612.797.67
Cash Retained (M)85.6085.6085.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.46-12.79-7.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.1472.8177.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.7630.7630.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.122.372.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.122.372.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.662.913.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$86.17$137.29$263.03
Upside / Downside217.37%405.67%868.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.30108.95116.03123.57131.60140.16144.36
Payout Ratio16.32%31.06%45.79%60.53%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.7033.8453.1374.8099.05126.14133.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.8231.1131.40
Year 2 PV (M)44.0844.9245.77
Year 3 PV (M)56.5258.1459.80
Year 4 PV (M)68.1870.8073.49
Year 5 PV (M)79.0882.9086.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,454.141,524.381,597.30
Equity Value (M)1,732.821,812.251,894.63
Shares Outstanding (M)30.7630.7630.76
Fair Value$56.33$58.91$61.59
Upside / Downside107.47%116.98%126.85%

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