Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China PengFei Group Limited (3348.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.01 - $4.47$3.71
Multi-Stage$5.63 - $6.19$5.90
Blended Fair Value$4.81
Current Price$0.93
Upside416.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.33%0.00%0.090.070.070.080.050.040.370.030.030.00
YoY Growth--15.81%12.12%-17.50%60.00%29.74%-89.58%1,161.23%12.39%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.24%7.93%7.12%9.73%5.08%4.15%35.55%2.96%2.44%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)188.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.6423.5314.12
Cash Retained (M)108.36108.36108.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.64-23.53-14.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)70.7284.8494.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)500.00500.00500.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.01$3.71$4.47
Upside / Downside223.80%298.44%380.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)188.21186.33184.47182.62180.80178.99184.36
Payout Ratio42.43%51.94%61.46%70.97%80.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.8596.78113.37129.61145.52161.09170.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)88.8789.7890.69
Year 2 PV (M)95.6097.5699.54
Year 3 PV (M)100.37103.47106.64
Year 4 PV (M)103.48107.77112.19
Year 5 PV (M)105.20110.68116.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,322.172,443.092,569.00
Equity Value (M)2,815.692,952.353,094.44
Shares Outstanding (M)500.00500.00500.00
Fair Value$5.63$5.90$6.19
Upside / Downside505.24%534.61%565.16%

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