Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Indonesia Fibreboard Industry Tbk (IFII.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$153.02 - $217.88$184.92
Multi-Stage$252.19 - $275.91$263.83
Blended Fair Value$224.37
Current Price$230.00
Upside-2.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%10.002.004.000.005.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--400.00%-50.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.55%1.32%2.09%0.00%3.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214,406.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150,592.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)63,814.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42,881.2226,800.7616,080.46
Cash Retained (M)63,814.0963,814.0963,814.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-42,881.22-26,800.76-16,080.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)20,932.8737,013.3347,733.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,412.009,412.009,412.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.223.935.07
LTM Dividend per Share16.0016.0016.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.223.935.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.2219.9321.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$153.02$184.92$217.88
Upside / Downside-33.47%-19.60%-5.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214,406.09212,262.03210,139.41208,038.02205,957.64203,898.06210,015.00
Payout Ratio70.24%74.19%78.14%82.09%86.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150,592.00157,476.03164,207.32170,788.24177,221.11183,508.25194,263.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.67%9.67%9.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)142,138.84143,589.24145,039.64
Year 2 PV (M)133,779.37136,523.49139,295.47
Year 3 PV (M)125,589.38129,473.32133,436.52
Year 4 PV (M)117,627.47122,502.58127,527.68
Year 5 PV (M)109,937.84115,662.56121,623.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,744,537.481,835,379.601,929,967.19
Equity Value (M)2,373,610.392,483,130.792,596,889.81
Shares Outstanding (M)9,412.009,412.009,412.00
Fair Value$252.19$263.83$275.91
Upside / Downside9.65%14.71%19.96%

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