DDM Analysis: TFW.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.66 - $16.55	$10.95
Multi-Stage	$5.71 - $6.23	$5.97
Blended Fair Value	$8.46
Current Price	$3.18
Upside	165.96%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.01%	7.95%	0.07	0.06	0.10	0.06	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.06	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	5.03%	-39.56%	82.16%	2.52%	2.68%	9.80%	18.09%	-26.96%	19.79%	55.61%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.90%	1.66%	2.71%	1.28%	1.83%	1.69%	1.47%	1.06%	2.53%	2.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	46.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	18.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)	28.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.37	5.86	3.51
Cash Retained (M)	28.38	28.38	28.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.37	-5.86	-3.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)	19.01	22.53	24.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	117.31	117.31	117.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.19	0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.19	0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.32	0.35	0.37
WACC / Discount Rate	9.90%	9.90%	9.90%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$7.66	$10.95	$16.55
Upside / Downside	140.89%	244.20%	420.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	46.84	49.89	53.13	56.59	60.26	64.18	66.11
Payout Ratio	39.41%	49.53%	59.65%	69.76%	79.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	18.46	24.71	31.69	39.48	48.14	57.76	61.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.90%	9.90%	9.90%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	22.27	22.48	22.69
Year 2 PV (M)	25.75	26.24	26.73
Year 3 PV (M)	28.91	29.74	30.59
Year 4 PV (M)	31.78	33.00	34.26
Year 5 PV (M)	34.37	36.03	37.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	527.34	552.81	579.26
Equity Value (M)	670.42	700.30	731.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	117.31	117.31	117.31
Fair Value	$5.71	$5.97	$6.23
Upside / Downside	79.71%	87.72%	96.02%

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FW Thorpe Plc (TFW.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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