Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$261.40 - $1,176.18$605.96
Multi-Stage$135.02 - $147.70$141.24
Blended Fair Value$373.60
Current Price$56.05
Upside566.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.45%1.71%1.731.200.480.480.480.440.310.201.811.81
YoY Growth--44.84%147.33%-0.03%0.08%9.51%40.66%58.22%-89.00%-0.15%23.49%
Dividend Yield--4.62%1.65%0.86%2.27%2.62%2.31%1.61%1.03%4.07%3.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)284.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)203.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.9535.5921.35
Cash Retained (M)203.95203.95203.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.95-35.59-21.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)147.00168.36182.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.1448.1448.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.053.503.79
LTM Dividend per Share1.681.681.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.053.503.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.735.175.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$261.40$605.96$1,176.18
Upside / Downside366.38%981.10%1,998.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)284.73303.24322.95343.94366.30390.11401.81
Payout Ratio28.37%40.70%53.02%65.35%77.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.78123.41171.24224.76284.52351.10371.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.41%7.41%7.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)113.82114.90115.98
Year 2 PV (M)145.65148.43151.23
Year 3 PV (M)176.32181.38186.54
Year 4 PV (M)205.85213.77221.91
Year 5 PV (M)234.27245.59257.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,624.355,896.006,178.06
Equity Value (M)6,500.266,800.077,111.05
Shares Outstanding (M)48.1448.1448.14
Fair Value$135.02$141.24$147.70
Upside / Downside140.89%152.00%163.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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