Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Sona BLW Precision Forgings Limited (SONACOMS.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$340.84 - $1,960.88$637.39
Multi-Stage$196.80 - $215.34$205.90
Blended Fair Value$421.65
Current Price$411.75
Upside2.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS14.34%0.00%3.042.881.930.721.451.561.660.000.000.00
YoY Growth--5.53%49.50%166.53%-50.23%-6.62%-6.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%0.43%0.37%0.13%0.42%0.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,128.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)897.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,230.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,225.60766.00459.60
Cash Retained (M)5,230.735,230.735,230.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,225.60-766.00-459.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,005.134,464.734,771.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)621.51621.51621.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.447.187.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.441.441.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.447.187.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.898.639.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$340.84$637.39$1,960.88
Upside / Downside-17.22%54.80%376.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,128.016,526.336,950.547,402.337,883.488,395.908,647.78
Payout Ratio14.64%29.71%44.79%59.86%74.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)897.281,939.223,112.834,430.805,906.977,556.317,999.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.94%7.94%7.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,779.681,796.551,813.42
Year 2 PV (M)2,621.702,671.642,722.05
Year 3 PV (M)3,424.723,523.043,623.21
Year 4 PV (M)4,190.084,351.224,516.96
Year 5 PV (M)4,919.055,156.655,403.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)105,379.90110,469.79115,754.48
Equity Value (M)122,315.14127,968.87133,833.44
Shares Outstanding (M)621.51621.51621.51
Fair Value$196.80$205.90$215.34
Upside / Downside-52.20%-49.99%-47.70%

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