DDM Analysis: SMKM.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$16.82 - $23.81	$20.27
Multi-Stage	$25.07 - $27.52	$26.27
Blended Fair Value	$23.27
Current Price	$76.00
Upside	-69.38%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.50	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-50.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.02%	2.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,225.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	626.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,599.35

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	645.17	403.23	241.94
Cash Retained (M)	2,599.35	2,599.35	2,599.35
(-) Cash Required (M)	-645.17	-403.23	-241.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,954.18	2,196.12	2,357.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,253.00	1,253.00	1,253.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.56	1.75	1.88
LTM Dividend per Share	0.50	0.50	0.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.56	1.75	1.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.06	2.25	2.38
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$16.82	$20.27	$23.81
Upside / Downside	-77.87%	-73.32%	-68.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,225.85	3,193.59	3,161.66	3,130.04	3,098.74	3,067.75	3,159.79
Payout Ratio	19.42%	33.54%	47.65%	61.77%	75.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	626.50	1,071.03	1,506.62	1,933.38	2,351.46	2,760.98	2,922.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	963.83	973.67	983.50
Year 2 PV (M)	1,220.11	1,245.14	1,270.42
Year 3 PV (M)	1,409.00	1,452.58	1,497.04
Year 4 PV (M)	1,542.16	1,606.08	1,671.96
Year 5 PV (M)	1,629.50	1,714.35	1,802.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)	24,642.93	25,926.15	27,262.27
Equity Value (M)	31,407.54	32,917.96	34,487.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,253.00	1,253.00	1,253.00
Fair Value	$25.07	$26.27	$27.52
Upside / Downside	-67.02%	-65.43%	-63.78%

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PT Sumber Mas Konstruksi Tbk (SMKM.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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