Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nutrition SC Public Company Limited (NTSC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.46 - $13.07$10.60
Multi-Stage$18.58 - $20.48$19.51
Blended Fair Value$15.06
Current Price$5.70
Upside164.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.220.003.680.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.08%0.00%133.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.8814.308.58
Cash Retained (M)98.4198.4198.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.88-14.30-8.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.5384.1189.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.88124.88124.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.46$10.60$13.07
Upside / Downside48.49%85.98%129.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.41113.27112.13111.01109.90108.80112.07
Payout Ratio13.98%29.19%44.39%59.59%74.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.0033.0649.7866.1682.2097.92103.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)30.7331.0531.36
Year 2 PV (M)43.0243.9044.79
Year 3 PV (M)53.1554.7956.47
Year 4 PV (M)61.3963.9366.55
Year 5 PV (M)67.9871.5275.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,064.282,171.772,283.70
Equity Value (M)2,320.542,436.952,558.07
Shares Outstanding (M)124.88124.88124.88
Fair Value$18.58$19.51$20.48
Upside / Downside226.00%242.35%259.37%

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