DDM Analysis: MCGS.QA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.69 - $4.08	$3.34
Multi-Stage	$5.86 - $6.44	$6.15
Blended Fair Value	$4.74
Current Price	$7.04
Upside	-32.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-5.24%	-3.01%	0.22	0.26	0.24	0.28	0.28	0.29	0.39	0.29	0.50	0.48
YoY Growth	-	-	-14.42%	6.50%	-12.59%	-0.88%	-3.24%	-26.03%	32.70%	-41.07%	3.52%	61.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.89%	6.15%	4.18%	3.91%	2.89%	4.91%	6.15%	4.25%	5.23%	4.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	86.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	55.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)	30.28

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.22	10.76	6.46
Cash Retained (M)	30.28	30.28	30.28
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.22	-10.76	-6.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.06	19.52	23.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	281.26	281.26	281.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.08
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.24	0.27	0.28
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	-2.10%	-1.10%	-0.10%
Fair Value	$2.69	$3.34	$4.08
Upside / Downside	-61.84%	-52.52%	-41.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	86.10	85.16	84.22	83.30	82.39	81.49	83.93
Payout Ratio	64.83%	69.87%	74.90%	79.93%	84.97%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	55.82	59.50	63.08	66.59	70.00	73.34	77.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	-2.10%	-1.10%	-0.10%
Year 1 PV (M)	55.13	55.69	56.25
Year 2 PV (M)	54.16	55.27	56.40
Year 3 PV (M)	52.97	54.61	56.29
Year 4 PV (M)	51.60	53.74	55.95
Year 5 PV (M)	50.09	52.70	55.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,384.30	1,456.45	1,531.58
Equity Value (M)	1,648.25	1,728.48	1,811.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	281.26	281.26	281.26
Fair Value	$5.86	$6.15	$6.44
Upside / Downside	-16.76%	-12.71%	-8.49%

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MRBK	Meridian Corporation	2.85%	$0.49	27.85%
AMGN	Amgen Inc.	2.84%	$9.31	72.03%
BKH	Black Hills Corporation	2.84%	$1.98	50.60%
GABC	German American Bancorp, Inc.	2.84%	$1.11	40.35%
HOMB	Home Bancshares, Inc.	2.84%	$0.79	34.17%
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TSBK	Timberland Bancorp, Inc.	2.84%	$1.00	27.24%
CATY	Cathay General Bancorp	2.83%	$1.38	31.20%
CWT	California Water Service Group	2.83%	$1.22	53.25%
EBIX	Ebix, Inc.	2.83%	$0.08	46.85%
CMS-PB	Consumers Energy Company	2.82%	$2.17	62.27%
EPRT	Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.	2.82%	$0.85	70.58%
GPK	Graphic Packaging Holding Company	2.82%	$0.43	24.85%
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CCNE	CNB Financial Corporation	2.81%	$0.72	35.05%
ORRF	Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.	2.81%	$0.98	26.05%
TXNM	TXNM Energy, Inc.	2.80%	$1.65	86.75%
STC	Stewart Information Services Corporation	2.79%	$1.95	54.56%
CVLY	Codorus Valley Bancorp, Inc.	2.77%	$0.67	28.98%
KKRS	KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4.	2.77%	$0.49	7.61%
SHBI	Shore Bancshares, Inc.	2.77%	$0.48	28.28%
HNNA	Hennessy Advisors, Inc.	2.76%	$0.27	21.11%
HONE	HarborOne Bancorp, Inc.	2.76%	$0.33	51.05%
KMT	Kennametal Inc.	2.76%	$0.80	65.12%
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HWC	Hancock Whitney Corporation	2.75%	$1.77	31.35%
YOU	Clear Secure, Inc.	2.75%	$0.95	50.89%
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MTDR	Matador Resources Company	2.74%	$1.19	18.96%
OFG	OFG Bancorp	2.74%	$1.12	25.13%
VLO	Valero Energy Corporation	2.74%	$4.53	93.65%
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PBHC	Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc.	2.71%	$0.38	26.39%
TRIN	Trinity Capital Inc.	2.71%	$0.41	20.50%
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Medicare Group Q.P.S.C. (MCGS.QA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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