DDM Analysis: KEPEN.AT

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.45 - $2.46	$1.89
Multi-Stage	$2.81 - $3.09	$2.95
Blended Fair Value	$2.42
Current Price	$1.73
Upside	39.82%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.80%	-11.52%	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.59	0.18	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.05%	0.03%	-92.06%	221.71%	328.08%	54.01%	-0.09%	21.76%	-23.34%	-81.27%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.72%	2.30%	2.20%	20.54%	8.51%	2.44%	1.99%	1.46%	1.28%	1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	0.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	0.48

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	0.16	0.10	0.06
Cash Retained (M)	0.48	0.48	0.48
(-) Cash Required (M)	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)	0.32	0.38	0.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	6.70	6.70	6.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.11
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	-0.20%	0.80%	1.80%
Fair Value	$1.45	$1.89	$2.46
Upside / Downside	-16.37%	9.15%	42.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	0.79	0.80	0.80	0.81	0.82	0.82	0.85
Payout Ratio	39.82%	49.86%	59.89%	69.93%	79.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.31	0.40	0.48	0.57	0.65	0.74	0.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	-0.20%	0.80%	1.80%
Year 1 PV (M)	0.37	0.37	0.38
Year 2 PV (M)	0.42	0.43	0.43
Year 3 PV (M)	0.46	0.47	0.49
Year 4 PV (M)	0.49	0.51	0.53
Year 5 PV (M)	0.52	0.55	0.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)	16.59	17.43	18.32
Equity Value (M)	18.84	19.76	20.72
Shares Outstanding (M)	6.70	6.70	6.70
Fair Value	$2.81	$2.95	$3.09
Upside / Downside	62.54%	70.48%	78.73%

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Flour Mills Kepenos S.A. (KEPEN.AT)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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