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Definitive Analysis

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PT Mulia Boga Raya Tbk (KEJU.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$352.95 - $548.41$443.32
Multi-Stage$819.32 - $902.20$859.95
Blended Fair Value$651.63
Current Price$580.00
Upside12.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-17.50%0.00%17.3124.500.000.0036.9145.2910.600.000.000.00
YoY Growth---29.33%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-18.51%327.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.12%8.06%0.00%0.00%10.25%22.50%3.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)171,804.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73,125.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)98,679.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34,360.9621,475.6012,885.36
Cash Retained (M)98,679.7998,679.7998,679.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-34,360.96-21,475.60-12,885.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)64,318.8377,204.1985,794.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,592.524,592.524,592.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share14.0116.8118.68
LTM Dividend per Share15.9215.9215.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share14.0116.8118.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend29.9332.7334.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$352.95$443.32$548.41
Upside / Downside-39.15%-23.57%-5.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)171,804.79170,086.74168,385.87166,702.01165,034.99163,384.64168,286.18
Payout Ratio42.56%52.05%61.54%71.03%80.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73,125.0088,530.61103,620.80118,400.33132,873.91147,046.18155,664.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)82,434.8583,276.0284,117.20
Year 2 PV (M)89,842.4891,685.3693,546.94
Year 3 PV (M)95,588.3898,544.52101,560.98
Year 4 PV (M)99,887.08104,026.93108,294.15
Year 5 PV (M)102,929.70108,289.49113,870.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,292,073.573,463,499.483,641,993.40
Equity Value (M)3,762,756.073,949,321.804,143,382.94
Shares Outstanding (M)4,592.524,592.524,592.52
Fair Value$819.32$859.95$902.20
Upside / Downside41.26%48.27%55.55%

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