Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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H. Lundbeck A/S (HLUN-A.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.27 - $125.53$87.67
Multi-Stage$92.11 - $101.17$96.55
Blended Fair Value$92.11
Current Price$45.54
Upside102.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.87%2.47%0.700.580.400.500.822.401.600.490.000.00
YoY Growth--20.49%45.09%-20.12%-39.02%-65.81%50.03%228.99%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.01%1.75%1.26%1.54%2.53%7.39%4.93%1.50%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,809.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)943.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,866.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)761.80476.13285.68
Cash Retained (M)2,866.002,866.002,866.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-761.80-476.13-285.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,104.202,389.882,580.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)992.72992.72992.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.122.412.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.950.950.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.122.412.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.073.363.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Fair Value$63.27$87.67$125.53
Upside / Downside38.94%92.51%175.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,809.003,908.174,009.924,114.334,221.454,331.364,461.30
Payout Ratio24.76%37.81%50.85%63.90%76.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)943.001,477.512,039.222,629.173,248.473,898.224,126.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Year 1 PV (M)1,373.391,386.911,400.43
Year 2 PV (M)1,761.941,796.791,831.99
Year 3 PV (M)2,111.592,174.552,238.75
Year 4 PV (M)2,425.112,522.002,621.77
Year 5 PV (M)2,705.102,840.862,982.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)81,059.6185,127.9289,357.96
Equity Value (M)91,436.7395,849.03100,432.92
Shares Outstanding (M)992.72992.72992.72
Fair Value$92.11$96.55$101.17
Upside / Downside102.25%112.01%122.15%

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