DDM Analysis: HGT.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$13.72 - $27.73	$19.14
Multi-Stage	$10.87 - $11.88	$11.37
Blended Fair Value	$15.26
Current Price	$5.15
Upside	196.22%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.04%	5.20%	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.03	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-13.05%	57.97%	6.18%	10.60%	7.43%	-25.81%	55.00%	25.00%	-33.33%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.21%	1.51%	2.13%	1.12%	1.46%	1.56%	2.10%	2.86%	2.12%	2.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	358.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	54.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)	304.05

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	71.80	44.87	26.92
Cash Retained (M)	304.05	304.05	304.05
(-) Cash Required (M)	-71.80	-44.87	-26.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)	232.25	259.18	277.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	457.73	457.73	457.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.51	0.57	0.61
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.51	0.57	0.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.63	0.69	0.73
WACC / Discount Rate	9.75%	9.75%	9.75%
Growth Rate	4.95%	5.95%	6.95%
Fair Value	$13.72	$19.14	$27.73
Upside / Downside	166.48%	271.72%	438.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	358.98	380.35	402.99	426.98	452.40	479.33	493.71
Payout Ratio	15.30%	30.24%	45.18%	60.12%	75.06%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	54.93	115.02	182.07	256.70	339.57	431.39	456.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.75%	9.75%	9.75%
Growth Rate	4.95%	5.95%	6.95%
Year 1 PV (M)	103.81	104.80	105.79
Year 2 PV (M)	148.32	151.16	154.02
Year 3 PV (M)	188.73	194.18	199.73
Year 4 PV (M)	225.33	234.04	243.00
Year 5 PV (M)	258.37	270.91	283.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,051.40	4,248.12	4,452.42
Equity Value (M)	4,975.96	5,203.22	5,438.91
Shares Outstanding (M)	457.73	457.73	457.73
Fair Value	$10.87	$11.37	$11.88
Upside / Downside	111.09%	120.73%	130.73%

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HgCapital Trust plc (HGT.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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