Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.03 - $104.39$57.66
Multi-Stage$24.71 - $27.01$25.84
Blended Fair Value$41.75
Current Price$17.25
Upside142.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.22%7.50%0.290.315.260.295.190.270.260.190.060.13
YoY Growth---5.98%-94.12%1,690.87%-94.33%1,793.90%5.61%35.49%198.56%-48.78%-11.33%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.66%35.56%2.34%2.15%0.15%0.13%0.09%0.02%0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)544.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)451.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.8168.0140.80
Cash Retained (M)451.69451.69451.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.81-68.01-40.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)342.88383.68410.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)360.98360.98360.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.061.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.061.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.211.321.39
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.03$57.66$104.39
Upside / Downside114.64%234.29%505.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)544.06579.42617.09657.20699.91745.41767.77
Payout Ratio16.98%31.58%46.19%60.79%75.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.37182.99285.01399.52527.70670.87710.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)166.41167.98169.56
Year 2 PV (M)235.68240.17244.70
Year 3 PV (M)300.42309.05317.83
Year 4 PV (M)360.85374.72389.00
Year 5 PV (M)417.16437.31458.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,439.977,799.328,172.43
Equity Value (M)8,920.489,328.559,751.75
Shares Outstanding (M)360.98360.98360.98
Fair Value$24.71$25.84$27.01
Upside / Downside43.26%49.81%56.61%

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