Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $553.03 - $1,467.05 | $845.65 |
| Multi-Stage | $370.99 - $405.75 | $388.06 |
| Blended Fair Value | $616.85 | |
| Current Price | $825.18 | |
| Upside | -25.25% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 24.08% | 17.61% | 1.20 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 40.77% | 51.31% | 15.49% | 12.16% | 6.57% | 18.54% | 11.66% | 7.04% | 9.68% | 10.82% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.37% | 0.27% | 0.39% | 0.55% | 0.58% | 1.12% | 0.65% | 0.75% | 0.79% | 0.83% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 837.62 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 60.12 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 777.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 167.52 | 104.70 | 62.82 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 777.50 | 777.50 | 777.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -167.52 | -104.70 | -62.82 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 609.98 | 672.80 | 714.68 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 35.53 | 35.53 | 35.53 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 17.17 | 18.94 | 20.12 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.69 | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 17.17 | 18.94 | 20.12 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 18.86 | 20.63 | 21.81 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $553.03 | $845.65 | $1,467.05 |
| Upside / Downside | -32.98% | 2.48% | 77.79% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 837.62 | 892.07 | 950.05 | 1,011.81 | 1,077.57 | 1,147.61 | 1,182.04 |
| Payout Ratio | 7.18% | 23.74% | 40.31% | 56.87% | 73.44% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 60.12 | 211.79 | 382.93 | 575.42 | 791.32 | 1,032.85 | 1,093.39 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 192.31 | 194.13 | 195.95 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 315.71 | 321.73 | 327.80 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 430.77 | 443.14 | 455.74 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 537.89 | 558.58 | 579.86 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 637.48 | 668.27 | 700.24 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 11,066.70 | 11,601.22 | 12,156.20 |
| Equity Value (M) | 13,180.86 | 13,787.07 | 14,415.79 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 35.53 | 35.53 | 35.53 |
| Fair Value | $370.99 | $388.06 | $405.75 |
| Upside / Downside | -55.04% | -52.97% | -50.83% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | Colgate-Palmolive Company | 2.88% | $2.24 | 62.40% |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | 2.87% | $1.35 | 37.83% |
| 0U6R.L | Bunge Limited | 2.86% | $3.05 | 31.37% |
| FBMS | The First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.86% | $0.97 | 39.72% |
| RILYG | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.00% Senior Notes due 2026 | 2.86% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| CNS | Cohen & Steers, Inc. | 2.85% | $1.81 | 56.91% |
| MRBK | Meridian Corporation | 2.85% | $0.49 | 27.85% |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | 2.84% | $9.31 | 72.03% |
| BKH | Black Hills Corporation | 2.84% | $1.98 | 50.60% |
| GABC | German American Bancorp, Inc. | 2.84% | $1.11 | 40.35% |
| HOMB | Home Bancshares, Inc. | 2.84% | $0.79 | 34.17% |
| KO | The Coca-Cola Company | 2.84% | $1.96 | 65.04% |
| SBFG | SB Financial Group, Inc. | 2.84% | $0.61 | 28.02% |
| TSBK | Timberland Bancorp, Inc. | 2.84% | $1.00 | 27.24% |
| CATY | Cathay General Bancorp | 2.83% | $1.38 | 31.20% |
| CWT | California Water Service Group | 2.83% | $1.22 | 53.25% |
| EBIX | Ebix, Inc. | 2.83% | $0.08 | 46.85% |
| CMS-PB | Consumers Energy Company | 2.82% | $2.17 | 62.27% |
| EPRT | Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | 2.82% | $0.85 | 70.58% |
| GPK | Graphic Packaging Holding Company | 2.82% | $0.43 | 24.85% |
| VALSX | Value Line Select Growth Fund | 2.82% | $0.87 | 56.29% |
| CCNE | CNB Financial Corporation | 2.81% | $0.72 | 35.05% |
| ORRF | Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. | 2.81% | $0.98 | 26.05% |
| TXNM | TXNM Energy, Inc. | 2.80% | $1.65 | 86.75% |
| STC | Stewart Information Services Corporation | 2.79% | $1.95 | 54.56% |
| CVLY | Codorus Valley Bancorp, Inc. | 2.77% | $0.67 | 28.98% |
| KKRS | KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4. | 2.77% | $0.49 | 7.61% |
| SHBI | Shore Bancshares, Inc. | 2.77% | $0.48 | 28.28% |
| HNNA | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. | 2.76% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HONE | HarborOne Bancorp, Inc. | 2.76% | $0.33 | 51.05% |
| KMT | Kennametal Inc. | 2.76% | $0.80 | 65.12% |
| PNM | PNM Resources, Inc. | 2.76% | $1.12 | 57.65% |
| HWC | Hancock Whitney Corporation | 2.75% | $1.77 | 31.35% |
| YOU | Clear Secure, Inc. | 2.75% | $0.95 | 50.89% |
| 0HE2.L | Ameren Corporation | 2.74% | $2.78 | 53.51% |
| MTDR | Matador Resources Company | 2.74% | $1.19 | 18.96% |
| OFG | OFG Bancorp | 2.74% | $1.12 | 25.13% |
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | 2.74% | $4.53 | 93.65% |
| YORW | The York Water Company | 2.73% | $0.87 | 62.37% |
| CCZ | Comcast Holdings Corp. | 2.72% | $1.63 | 26.92% |
| K | Kellanova | 2.72% | $2.27 | 62.18% |
| ADT | ADT Inc. | 2.71% | $0.22 | 29.95% |
| AVT | Avnet, Inc. | 2.71% | $1.34 | 48.46% |
| BKU | BankUnited, Inc. | 2.71% | $1.21 | 34.19% |
| CNOB | ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. | 2.71% | $0.71 | 48.64% |
| GBX | The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | 2.71% | $1.28 | 19.40% |
| PBHC | Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. | 2.71% | $0.38 | 26.39% |
| TRIN | Trinity Capital Inc. | 2.71% | $0.41 | 20.50% |
| RILYN | B. Riley Financial, Inc. - 6.50 | 2.70% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| 0L5A.L | Sempra | 2.69% | $2.41 | 72.79% |