DDM Analysis: EMAE4.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$160.97 - $341.89	$228.64
Multi-Stage	$114.65 - $125.38	$119.92
Blended Fair Value	$174.28
Current Price	$34.90
Upside	399.36%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	14.72%	25.49%	1.49	2.88	0.80	7.66	1.64	0.75	0.93	0.40	0.10	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-48.27%	260.36%	-89.55%	367.06%	118.37%	-19.13%	131.47%	308.27%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.98%	4.17%	2.10%	20.72%	3.10%	3.52%	5.11%	5.23%	1.58%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	316.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)	316.51

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	63.30	39.57	23.74
Cash Retained (M)	316.51	316.51	316.51
(-) Cash Required (M)	-63.30	-39.57	-23.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	253.21	276.95	292.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	36.95	36.95	36.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	6.85	7.50	7.92
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	6.85	7.50	7.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.85	7.50	7.92
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$160.97	$228.64	$341.89
Upside / Downside	361.25%	555.12%	879.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	316.52	337.09	359.01	382.34	407.19	433.66	446.67
Payout Ratio	0.00%	18.00%	36.00%	54.00%	72.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.01	60.68	129.25	206.47	293.18	390.30	413.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	54.65	55.17	55.69
Year 2 PV (M)	104.84	106.83	108.85
Year 3 PV (M)	150.83	155.16	159.57
Year 4 PV (M)	192.89	200.31	207.94
Year 5 PV (M)	231.26	242.43	254.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,501.58	3,670.71	3,846.31
Equity Value (M)	4,236.05	4,430.61	4,632.38
Shares Outstanding (M)	36.95	36.95	36.95
Fair Value	$114.65	$119.92	$125.38
Upside / Downside	228.52%	243.60%	259.25%

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Sector

Empresa Metropolitana de Águas e Energia S.A. (EMAE4.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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