DDM Analysis: CZG.PR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$247.29 - $371.95	$306.24
Multi-Stage	$496.72 - $546.01	$520.89
Blended Fair Value	$413.56
Current Price	$772.00
Upside	-46.43%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-14.20%	0.00%	4.58	15.21	14.84	4.45	5.78	9.85	4.49	1.58	2.46	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-69.87%	2.49%	233.33%	-22.91%	-41.39%	119.61%	183.33%	-35.71%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.63%	2.48%	2.55%	0.73%	1.56%	3.40%	1.55%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,663.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	846.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	816.11

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	332.61	207.88	124.73
Cash Retained (M)	816.11	816.11	816.11
(-) Cash Required (M)	-332.61	-207.88	-124.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)	483.50	608.23	691.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	56.83	56.83	56.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share	8.51	10.70	12.17
LTM Dividend per Share	14.90	14.90	14.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share	8.51	10.70	12.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	23.41	25.60	27.07
WACC / Discount Rate	7.28%	7.28%	7.28%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$247.29	$306.24	$371.95
Upside / Downside	-67.97%	-60.33%	-51.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,663.06	1,646.43	1,629.96	1,613.66	1,597.53	1,581.55	1,629.00
Payout Ratio	50.93%	58.74%	66.56%	74.37%	82.19%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	846.95	967.14	1,084.84	1,200.09	1,312.93	1,423.40	1,506.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.28%	7.28%	7.28%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	892.42	901.53	910.64
Year 2 PV (M)	923.70	942.65	961.79
Year 3 PV (M)	942.90	972.06	1,001.81
Year 4 PV (M)	951.86	991.31	1,031.98
Year 5 PV (M)	952.22	1,001.81	1,053.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)	23,566.60	24,793.77	26,071.53
Equity Value (M)	28,229.71	29,603.12	31,031.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	56.83	56.83	56.83
Fair Value	$496.72	$520.89	$546.01
Upside / Downside	-35.66%	-32.53%	-29.27%

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Colt CZ Group SE (CZG.PR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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