Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Segar Kumala Indonesia Tbk (BUAH.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$286.46 - $444.55$359.62
Multi-Stage$656.66 - $723.31$689.33
Blended Fair Value$524.48
Current Price$700.00
Upside-25.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%11.507.000.0013.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--64.29%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.32%0.93%0.00%5.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60,967.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)39,967.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12,193.417,620.884,572.53
Cash Retained (M)39,967.0739,967.0739,967.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-12,193.41-7,620.88-4,572.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)27,773.6532,346.1835,394.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,000.002,000.002,000.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.8916.1717.70
LTM Dividend per Share10.5010.5010.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.8916.1717.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend24.3926.6728.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$286.46$359.62$444.55
Upside / Downside-59.08%-48.63%-36.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60,967.0760,357.4059,753.8259,156.2958,564.7257,979.0859,718.45
Payout Ratio34.44%45.56%56.67%67.78%78.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,000.0027,496.3333,860.6440,094.9146,201.1052,181.1755,239.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)25,595.1225,856.3026,117.47
Year 2 PV (M)29,340.0029,941.8330,549.77
Year 3 PV (M)32,339.7433,339.8734,360.41
Year 4 PV (M)34,688.2336,125.9037,607.80
Year 5 PV (M)36,469.1938,368.2240,345.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,154,892.831,215,030.781,277,648.25
Equity Value (M)1,313,325.111,378,662.901,446,629.26
Shares Outstanding (M)2,000.002,000.002,000.00
Fair Value$656.66$689.33$723.31
Upside / Downside-6.19%-1.52%3.33%

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