Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Banpu Power Public Company Limited (BPP-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.06 - $127.93$119.89
Multi-Stage$20.44 - $22.34$21.37
Blended Fair Value$70.63
Current Price$8.15
Upside766.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.47%1.23%0.700.700.750.650.600.650.600.550.532.21
YoY Growth--0.00%-6.67%15.38%8.30%-7.76%8.34%9.24%4.33%-76.14%256.53%
Dividend Yield--10.00%4.73%4.69%3.92%2.99%5.42%2.63%2.26%2.11%10.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,960.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,676.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)284.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)392.10245.06147.04
Cash Retained (M)284.26284.26284.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-392.10-245.06-147.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)-107.8439.20137.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,047.733,047.733,047.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.010.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.06$119.89$127.93
Upside / Downside698.34%1,371.03%1,469.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,960.512,087.942,223.652,368.192,522.122,686.062,766.64
Payout Ratio85.50%86.40%87.30%88.20%89.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,676.251,803.991,941.262,088.752,247.222,417.462,559.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,680.601,696.531,712.46
Year 2 PV (M)1,684.771,716.861,749.26
Year 3 PV (M)1,688.781,737.261,786.66
Year 4 PV (M)1,692.621,757.721,824.67
Year 5 PV (M)1,696.301,778.231,863.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,854.0356,455.2059,155.92
Equity Value (M)62,297.1165,141.8068,092.27
Shares Outstanding (M)3,047.733,047.733,047.73
Fair Value$20.44$21.37$22.34
Upside / Downside150.80%162.26%174.13%

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