Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Aran Research & Development (1982) Ltd. (ARAN.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.42 - $170.69$90.81
Multi-Stage$38.67 - $42.23$40.42
Blended Fair Value$65.62
Current Price$25.41
Upside158.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.001.260.630.630.000.900.211.450.510.51
YoY Growth---100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%325.00%-85.48%182.79%0.45%7.93%
Dividend Yield--0.00%5.88%2.85%2.87%0.00%9.98%1.42%8.97%2.30%1.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.141.340.80
Cash Retained (M)6.706.706.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.14-1.34-0.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.565.365.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.754.754.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.961.131.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.961.131.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.801.972.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.42$90.81$170.69
Upside / Downside125.98%257.37%571.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10.7011.3912.1412.9213.7614.6615.10
Payout Ratio37.39%47.91%58.43%68.95%79.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.005.467.098.9110.9413.1913.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4.975.025.06
Year 2 PV (M)5.885.996.10
Year 3 PV (M)6.726.927.11
Year 4 PV (M)7.517.808.10
Year 5 PV (M)8.258.659.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)150.23157.49165.02
Equity Value (M)183.57191.86200.47
Shares Outstanding (M)4.754.754.75
Fair Value$38.67$40.42$42.23
Upside / Downside52.20%59.08%66.21%

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