DDM Analysis: ALPH.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$86.01 - $199.41	$125.94
Multi-Stage	$59.89 - $65.49	$62.64
Blended Fair Value	$94.29
Current Price	$31.85
Upside	196.04%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	22.92%	35.81%	0.16	0.15	0.11	0.10	0.00	0.06	0.04	0.01	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	11.24%	32.39%	6.77%	0.00%	-100.00%	42.91%	259.43%	-3.64%	106.65%	-25.61%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.70%	0.84%	0.60%	0.48%	0.00%	0.47%	0.72%	0.23%	0.47%	0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	179.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)	170.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	35.90	22.44	13.46
Cash Retained (M)	170.80	170.80	170.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-35.90	-22.44	-13.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)	134.90	148.36	157.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	43.31	43.31	43.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.11	3.43	3.63
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.11	3.43	3.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.32	3.63	3.83
WACC / Discount Rate	9.57%	9.57%	9.57%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$86.01	$125.94	$199.41
Upside / Downside	170.06%	295.40%	526.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	179.49	191.15	203.58	216.81	230.90	245.91	253.29
Payout Ratio	4.84%	21.87%	38.90%	55.94%	72.97%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8.69	41.81	79.20	121.27	168.48	221.32	234.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.57%	9.57%	9.57%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	37.80	38.16	38.52
Year 2 PV (M)	64.74	65.97	67.22
Year 3 PV (M)	89.63	92.20	94.82
Year 4 PV (M)	112.58	116.91	121.36
Year 5 PV (M)	133.70	140.16	146.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,155.42	2,259.52	2,367.61
Equity Value (M)	2,593.86	2,712.92	2,836.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	43.31	43.31	43.31
Fair Value	$59.89	$62.64	$65.49
Upside / Downside	88.05%	96.68%	105.63%

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Alpha Group International plc (ALPH.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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