DDM Analysis: ALPA3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.27 - $13.40	$9.79
Multi-Stage	$38.88 - $43.02	$40.91
Blended Fair Value	$25.35
Current Price	$9.42
Upside	169.12%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.94%	-58.41%	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.21	0.04	0.00	0.29	0.21	0.18	0.59
YoY Growth	-	-	-21.74%	-99.97%	-39.91%	391.91%	83,808.33%	-99.98%	38.22%	13.31%	-68.98%	265.33%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	1.55%	0.81%	0.12%	0.00%	1.93%	1.60%	2.02%	10.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	373.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	61.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)	312.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	74.75	46.72	28.03
Cash Retained (M)	312.60	312.60	312.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-74.75	-46.72	-28.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	237.85	265.88	284.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	716.90	716.90	716.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.33	0.37	0.40
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.33	0.37	0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.42	0.46	0.48
WACC / Discount Rate	2.31%	2.31%	2.31%
Growth Rate	-3.24%	-2.24%	-1.24%
Fair Value	$7.27	$9.79	$13.40
Upside / Downside	-22.86%	3.97%	42.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	373.76	365.39	357.20	349.20	341.38	333.73	343.74
Payout Ratio	16.36%	31.09%	45.82%	60.55%	75.27%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	61.16	113.60	163.66	211.42	256.96	300.36	317.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	2.31%	2.31%	2.31%
Growth Rate	-3.24%	-2.24%	-1.24%
Year 1 PV (M)	109.90	111.03	112.17
Year 2 PV (M)	153.16	156.34	159.56
Year 3 PV (M)	191.41	197.40	203.52
Year 4 PV (M)	225.05	234.50	244.24
Year 5 PV (M)	254.48	267.90	281.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	26,939.07	28,360.20	29,840.68
Equity Value (M)	27,873.07	29,327.38	30,842.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	716.90	716.90	716.90
Fair Value	$38.88	$40.91	$43.02
Upside / Downside	312.74%	334.28%	356.70%

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Alpargatas S.A. (ALPA3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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