Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NSC Groupe S.A. (ALNSC.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$285.86 - $440.42$357.74
Multi-Stage$616.09 - $679.46$647.14
Blended Fair Value$502.44
Current Price$74.00
Upside578.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.002.312.752.502.752.60
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-16.08%9.97%-9.06%5.84%7.92%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.12%3.53%3.56%3.57%3.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.871.801.08
Cash Retained (M)13.8513.8513.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.87-1.80-1.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.9712.0512.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.460.460.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.7826.1127.67
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.7826.1127.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend24.9127.2428.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$285.86$357.74$440.42
Upside / Downside286.30%383.44%495.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.3714.2214.0813.9413.8013.6614.07
Payout Ratio3.63%20.90%38.18%55.45%72.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.522.975.387.7310.0412.3013.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.762.792.82
Year 2 PV (M)4.644.744.83
Year 3 PV (M)6.206.396.59
Year 4 PV (M)7.487.798.11
Year 5 PV (M)8.528.969.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)254.68267.94281.75
Equity Value (M)284.28298.61313.52
Shares Outstanding (M)0.460.460.46
Fair Value$616.09$647.14$679.46
Upside / Downside732.55%774.52%818.18%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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