Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ferretti S.p.A. (9638.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - Recreational VehiclesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.57 - $5.12$4.33
Multi-Stage$5.78 - $6.35$6.06
Blended Fair Value$5.20
Current Price$2.69
Upside93.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.100.060.020.010.020.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--64.97%196.75%91.08%-46.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.44%2.05%0.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.7921.7513.05
Cash Retained (M)107.29107.29107.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.79-21.75-13.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.5085.5494.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)338.48338.48338.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate9.28%9.28%9.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.57$4.33$5.12
Upside / Downside32.84%61.06%90.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.97172.23170.51168.80167.12165.45170.41
Payout Ratio38.33%48.66%59.00%69.33%79.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.6883.81100.60117.03133.13148.90157.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.28%9.28%9.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)75.9276.7077.47
Year 2 PV (M)82.5584.2485.95
Year 3 PV (M)87.0089.6992.43
Year 4 PV (M)89.6593.3697.19
Year 5 PV (M)90.8395.56100.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,531.861,611.631,694.68
Equity Value (M)1,957.802,051.172,148.22
Shares Outstanding (M)338.48338.48338.48
Fair Value$5.78$6.06$6.35
Upside / Downside115.02%125.28%135.93%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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