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Definitive Analysis

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AEON Mall Co., Ltd. (8905.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,315.59 - $12,377.24$9,929.42
Multi-Stage$1,908.55 - $2,087.51$1,996.38
Blended Fair Value$5,962.90
Current Price$2,033.00
Upside193.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.10%8.54%49.9949.9949.9944.9939.9938.9937.9829.4824.3722.02
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%11.11%12.52%2.57%2.66%28.83%20.95%10.65%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.46%2.64%2.84%2.89%2.25%2.53%2.38%1.40%1.18%1.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,260.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,377.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,883.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,852.001,782.501,069.50
Cash Retained (M)2,883.002,883.002,883.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,852.00-1,782.50-1,069.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.001,100.501,813.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)227.57227.57227.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.144.847.97
LTM Dividend per Share49.9949.9949.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.144.847.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend50.1354.8357.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Fair Value$3,315.59$9,929.42$12,377.24
Upside / Downside63.09%388.41%508.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,260.0015,082.7915,953.0516,873.5217,847.1118,876.8719,443.17
Payout Ratio79.78%81.83%83.87%85.91%87.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,377.0012,341.6513,379.7514,496.5615,697.7016,989.1817,984.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.77%5.77%6.77%
Year 1 PV (M)11,494.6111,604.3211,714.04
Year 2 PV (M)11,606.1911,828.8012,053.53
Year 3 PV (M)11,711.9012,050.4712,395.51
Year 4 PV (M)11,811.8812,269.3512,739.97
Year 5 PV (M)11,906.2912,485.4613,086.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)375,800.09394,080.28413,065.02
Equity Value (M)434,330.97454,318.68475,055.00
Shares Outstanding (M)227.57227.57227.57
Fair Value$1,908.55$1,996.38$2,087.51
Upside / Downside-6.12%-1.80%2.68%

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