DDM Analysis: 8499.TW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$104.59 - $162.06	$131.21
Multi-Stage	$122.68 - $134.58	$128.51
Blended Fair Value	$129.86
Current Price	$249.00
Upside	-47.85%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.34%	5.86%	4.01	2.51	10.03	10.03	6.20	6.20	6.26	3.89	15.81	3.12
YoY Growth	-	-	60.00%	-75.00%	0.02%	61.74%	0.00%	-0.90%	60.71%	-75.38%	407.23%	37.28%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.61%	2.17%	7.83%	6.39%	3.06%	6.82%	4.31%	3.11%	8.01%	1.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	445.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)	444.66

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	89.15	55.72	33.43
Cash Retained (M)	444.66	444.66	444.66
(-) Cash Required (M)	-89.15	-55.72	-33.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	355.50	388.94	411.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	41.36	41.36	41.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share	8.60	9.40	9.94
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	8.60	9.40	9.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend	8.62	9.43	9.97
WACC / Discount Rate	9.86%	9.86%	9.86%
Growth Rate	1.49%	2.49%	3.49%
Fair Value	$104.59	$131.21	$162.06
Upside / Downside	-57.99%	-47.31%	-34.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	445.77	456.88	468.26	479.93	491.89	504.15	519.27
Payout Ratio	0.25%	18.20%	36.15%	54.10%	72.05%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.11	83.15	169.28	259.64	354.41	453.73	480.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.86%	9.86%	9.86%
Growth Rate	1.49%	2.49%	3.49%
Year 1 PV (M)	74.95	75.69	76.43
Year 2 PV (M)	137.53	140.26	143.01
Year 3 PV (M)	190.15	195.83	201.62
Year 4 PV (M)	233.96	243.31	252.95
Year 5 PV (M)	269.99	283.55	297.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,167.31	4,376.70	4,594.42
Equity Value (M)	5,073.89	5,315.34	5,566.09
Shares Outstanding (M)	41.36	41.36	41.36
Fair Value	$122.68	$128.51	$134.58
Upside / Downside	-50.73%	-48.39%	-45.95%

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Top Bright Holding Co., Ltd. (8499.TW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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