Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co., Ltd. (688777.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.46 - $208.44$195.34
Multi-Stage$29.98 - $32.77$31.35
Blended Fair Value$113.35
Current Price$55.08
Upside105.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.84%0.00%0.720.540.240.160.000.250.090.150.010.00
YoY Growth--32.97%120.51%54.76%3,497.92%-98.22%176.16%-40.55%2,043.52%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.15%0.34%0.34%0.01%0.33%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)831.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)568.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)263.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.38103.9962.39
Cash Retained (M)263.81263.81263.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.38-103.99-62.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.43159.82201.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)793.69793.69793.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.200.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$76.46$195.34$208.44
Upside / Downside38.82%254.65%278.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)831.88885.96943.541,004.871,070.191,139.751,173.94
Payout Ratio68.29%72.63%76.97%81.32%85.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)568.08643.47726.27817.11916.701,025.781,085.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)597.65603.31608.98
Year 2 PV (M)626.51638.44650.49
Year 3 PV (M)654.67673.47692.62
Year 4 PV (M)682.15708.39735.37
Year 5 PV (M)708.96743.20778.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,522.9421,514.2122,543.41
Equity Value (M)23,792.8824,881.0126,009.61
Shares Outstanding (M)793.69793.69793.69
Fair Value$29.98$31.35$32.77
Upside / Downside-45.57%-43.09%-40.50%

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