Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co., Ltd. (688636.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.26 - $7.48$6.36
Multi-Stage$7.94 - $8.72$8.32
Blended Fair Value$7.34
Current Price$34.38
Upside-78.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS7.44%0.00%0.130.020.090.070.040.090.020.090.000.00
YoY Growth--597.69%-78.86%28.15%96.74%-61.51%418.19%-79.36%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.10%0.31%0.25%0.07%0.19%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)93.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.1213.828.29
Cash Retained (M)93.2893.2893.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.12-13.82-8.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.1679.4684.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)140.05140.05140.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.570.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.26$6.36$7.48
Upside / Downside-84.69%-81.51%-78.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.60109.49108.40107.31106.24105.18108.33
Payout Ratio15.66%30.52%45.39%60.26%75.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.3233.4249.2164.6779.8294.66100.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)30.1430.4530.76
Year 2 PV (M)40.0240.8441.67
Year 3 PV (M)47.4448.9150.40
Year 4 PV (M)52.8155.0057.25
Year 5 PV (M)56.4859.4262.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)884.62930.68978.64
Equity Value (M)1,111.521,165.311,221.22
Shares Outstanding (M)140.05140.05140.05
Fair Value$7.94$8.32$8.72
Upside / Downside-76.92%-75.80%-74.64%

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