Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. (688578.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.17 - $43.14$36.53
Multi-Stage$46.16 - $50.76$48.41
Blended Fair Value$42.47
Current Price$110.24
Upside-61.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS54.36%0.00%0.650.000.000.000.000.070.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-96.43%641.78%5.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.19%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,982.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)180.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,802.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)396.54247.83148.70
Cash Retained (M)1,802.681,802.681,802.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-396.54-247.83-148.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,406.141,554.841,653.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)450.37450.37450.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.123.453.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.123.453.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.523.854.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$30.17$36.53$43.14
Upside / Downside-72.63%-66.86%-60.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,982.681,962.851,943.221,923.791,904.551,885.501,942.07
Payout Ratio9.08%25.26%41.45%57.63%73.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)180.00495.87805.411,108.711,405.861,696.951,796.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)448.53453.10457.68
Year 2 PV (M)658.95672.47686.12
Year 3 PV (M)820.48845.86871.75
Year 4 PV (M)941.05980.051,020.25
Year 5 PV (M)1,027.451,080.951,136.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,891.1517,770.7118,686.54
Equity Value (M)20,787.6021,803.1322,858.99
Shares Outstanding (M)450.37450.37450.37
Fair Value$46.16$48.41$50.76
Upside / Downside-58.13%-56.08%-53.96%

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