Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Geovis Technology Co.,Ltd (688568.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.14 - $36.25$19.22
Multi-Stage$8.09 - $8.84$8.46
Blended Fair Value$13.84
Current Price$43.54
Upside-68.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS133.69%0.00%0.120.070.060.070.000.000.060.000.000.00
YoY Growth--64.10%18.54%-5.00%0.00%-100.00%-97.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.29%0.26%0.34%0.00%0.01%0.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)352.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)249.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.5044.0626.44
Cash Retained (M)249.86249.86249.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.50-44.06-26.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)179.36205.80223.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)742.08742.08742.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.14$19.22$36.25
Upside / Downside-72.12%-55.86%-16.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)352.49375.40399.80425.79453.46482.94497.43
Payout Ratio29.11%41.29%53.47%65.65%77.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.63155.01213.77279.51352.90434.64460.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)141.13142.47143.81
Year 2 PV (M)177.20180.58183.98
Year 3 PV (M)210.95217.01223.18
Year 4 PV (M)242.49251.82261.41
Year 5 PV (M)271.92285.06298.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,960.525,200.125,448.88
Equity Value (M)6,004.226,277.056,559.96
Shares Outstanding (M)742.08742.08742.08
Fair Value$8.09$8.46$8.84
Upside / Downside-81.42%-80.57%-79.70%

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