Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co., Ltd. (688518.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.87 - $104.70$98.12
Multi-Stage$62.29 - $68.35$65.26
Blended Fair Value$81.69
Current Price$26.55
Upside207.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS65.21%60.97%0.190.130.110.110.000.020.020.000.020.00
YoY Growth--44.95%15.21%6.27%2,771.83%-75.85%-13.99%0.00%-100.00%1,258.31%-3.12%
Dividend Yield--1.16%0.88%0.36%0.31%0.03%0.06%0.07%0.00%0.08%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)178.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.7822.3613.42
Cash Retained (M)115.50115.50115.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.78-22.36-13.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.7293.14102.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)339.76339.76339.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate1.70%1.70%1.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$88.87$98.12$104.70
Upside / Downside234.73%269.58%294.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)178.88190.50202.89216.07230.12245.08252.43
Payout Ratio35.43%46.35%57.26%68.17%79.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.3888.29116.17147.30181.99220.57233.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.70%1.70%1.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)86.0086.8187.63
Year 2 PV (M)110.22112.32114.44
Year 3 PV (M)136.13140.04144.02
Year 4 PV (M)163.82170.12176.60
Year 5 PV (M)193.40202.74212.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,473.1321,461.9822,488.69
Equity Value (M)21,162.6922,174.0223,223.82
Shares Outstanding (M)339.76339.76339.76
Fair Value$62.29$65.26$68.35
Upside / Downside134.60%145.81%157.45%

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