Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Southchip Semiconductor Technology (688484.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.49 - $4.94$4.21
Multi-Stage$5.04 - $5.54$5.28
Blended Fair Value$4.75
Current Price$51.59
Upside-90.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.380.200.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--85.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)226.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)226.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.2628.2916.97
Cash Retained (M)226.16226.16226.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.26-28.29-16.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)180.90197.87209.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)423.58423.58423.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.470.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.470.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.49
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.49$4.21$4.94
Upside / Downside-93.23%-91.84%-90.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)226.29224.02221.78219.56217.37215.19221.65
Payout Ratio0.06%18.05%36.03%54.02%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.1340.4379.92118.61156.53193.68205.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)36.3836.7537.12
Year 2 PV (M)64.7266.0567.39
Year 3 PV (M)86.4589.1291.85
Year 4 PV (M)102.66106.92111.30
Year 5 PV (M)114.31120.26126.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,729.051,819.081,912.83
Equity Value (M)2,133.572,238.182,346.95
Shares Outstanding (M)423.58423.58423.58
Fair Value$5.04$5.28$5.54
Upside / Downside-90.24%-89.76%-89.26%

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