DDM Analysis: 688182.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.46 - $0.58	$0.52
Multi-Stage	$1.11 - $1.24	$1.18
Blended Fair Value	$0.85
Current Price	$28.45
Upside	-97.02%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	-36.68%	0.00%	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.60	0.58	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-16.07%	-12.50%	5,894.21%	-99.78%	4.22%	8,674.60%	-82.79%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.22%	0.40%	0.48%	0.01%	3.10%	2.98%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	93.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)	61.69

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	18.80	11.75	7.05
Cash Retained (M)	61.69	61.69	61.69
(-) Cash Required (M)	-18.80	-11.75	-7.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	42.89	49.94	54.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	397.62	397.62	397.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.13	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.13	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.21	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	7.80%	7.80%	7.80%
Growth Rate	-23.84%	-22.84%	-21.84%
Fair Value	$0.46	$0.52	$0.58
Upside / Downside	-98.40%	-98.17%	-97.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	93.99	72.52	55.96	43.18	33.32	25.71	26.48
Payout Ratio	34.37%	45.49%	56.62%	67.75%	78.87%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.30	32.99	31.69	29.25	26.28	23.14	24.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.80%	7.80%	7.80%
Growth Rate	-23.84%	-22.84%	-21.84%
Year 1 PV (M)	30.21	30.61	31.00
Year 2 PV (M)	26.57	27.27	27.98
Year 3 PV (M)	22.46	23.36	24.27
Year 4 PV (M)	18.47	19.46	20.49
Year 5 PV (M)	14.89	15.90	16.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)	328.80	350.96	374.30
Equity Value (M)	441.40	467.55	495.00
Shares Outstanding (M)	397.62	397.62	397.62
Fair Value	$1.11	$1.18	$1.24
Upside / Downside	-96.10%	-95.87%	-95.62%

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Jiangsu Cai Qin Technology Co., Ltd (688182.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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