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Definitive Analysis

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Nihon Kohden Corporation (6849.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,746.25 - $3,344.94$2,387.75
Multi-Stage$2,081.47 - $2,281.85$2,179.78
Blended Fair Value$2,283.77
Current Price$1,690.50
Upside35.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.35%4.44%31.1236.4234.9829.5518.1818.1818.2018.2818.2918.47
YoY Growth---14.54%4.10%18.40%62.54%-0.03%-0.10%-0.43%-0.03%-0.99%-8.33%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.58%1.82%2.13%1.15%1.00%1.23%1.19%1.41%1.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,159.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,107.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,052.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,631.802,269.881,361.93
Cash Retained (M)13,052.0013,052.0013,052.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,631.80-2,269.88-1,361.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,420.2010,782.1311,690.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)163.88163.88163.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share57.4865.7971.33
LTM Dividend per Share31.1631.1631.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share57.4865.7971.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.6596.96102.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Fair Value$1,746.25$2,387.75$3,344.94
Upside / Downside3.30%41.25%97.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,159.0018,784.2119,430.9520,099.9620,792.0021,507.8722,153.10
Payout Ratio28.12%40.50%52.87%65.25%77.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,107.007,607.4310,273.9813,115.1316,139.7419,357.0820,491.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate2.44%3.44%4.44%
Year 1 PV (M)6,998.937,067.257,135.57
Year 2 PV (M)8,696.148,866.749,039.00
Year 3 PV (M)10,213.0210,515.0310,822.94
Year 4 PV (M)11,563.0412,021.1912,492.81
Year 5 PV (M)12,758.7913,393.7914,053.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)290,879.13305,356.14320,403.92
Equity Value (M)341,109.04357,220.14373,948.07
Shares Outstanding (M)163.88163.88163.88
Fair Value$2,081.47$2,179.78$2,281.85
Upside / Downside23.13%28.94%34.98%

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