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Definitive Analysis

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ULVAC, Inc. (6728.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,613.74 - $58,491.80$24,102.56
Multi-Stage$8,011.10 - $8,767.48$8,382.31
Blended Fair Value$16,242.43
Current Price$6,449.00
Upside151.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.54%21.07%144.20109.12124.1495.0980.09105.0695.0750.0229.999.97
YoY Growth--32.15%-12.10%30.55%18.73%-23.77%10.51%90.06%66.82%200.81%-53.24%
Dividend Yield--2.24%1.43%2.30%1.85%1.25%2.76%2.19%1.14%0.42%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,618.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,557.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,923.601,827.251,096.35
Cash Retained (M)6,557.006,557.006,557.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,923.60-1,827.25-1,096.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,633.404,729.755,460.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.2649.2649.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share73.7696.02110.86
LTM Dividend per Share163.65163.65163.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share73.7696.02110.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend237.41259.67274.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Fair Value$11,613.74$24,102.56$58,491.80
Upside / Downside80.09%273.74%806.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,618.0015,427.6116,282.0517,183.8318,135.5419,139.9619,714.16
Payout Ratio55.14%62.12%69.09%76.06%83.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,061.009,582.9311,248.7213,069.6315,057.7317,225.9718,235.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Year 1 PV (M)8,898.148,983.269,068.38
Year 2 PV (M)9,698.509,884.9410,073.15
Year 3 PV (M)10,463.2310,766.3811,075.33
Year 4 PV (M)11,193.4211,627.9012,074.92
Year 5 PV (M)11,890.1612,469.8413,071.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)342,461.90359,158.00376,499.03
Equity Value (M)394,605.35412,890.32431,862.71
Shares Outstanding (M)49.2649.2649.26
Fair Value$8,011.10$8,382.31$8,767.48
Upside / Downside24.22%29.98%35.95%

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