DDM Analysis: 603868.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$30.72 - $125.72	$52.68
Multi-Stage	$28.84 - $31.60	$30.19
Blended Fair Value	$41.43
Current Price	$35.46
Upside	16.84%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.01%	15.80%	2.32	2.01	1.01	1.01	1.01	1.51	1.51	1.01	1.01	0.51
YoY Growth	-	-	15.47%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-33.33%	0.00%	50.00%	0.00%	98.43%	-5.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.31%	4.10%	1.22%	2.00%	2.22%	4.22%	3.31%	1.80%	2.13%	1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	450.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	221.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)	229.04

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	90.08	56.30	33.78
Cash Retained (M)	229.04	229.04	229.04
(-) Cash Required (M)	-90.08	-56.30	-33.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	138.96	172.74	195.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	432.67	432.67	432.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.40	0.45
LTM Dividend per Share	0.51	0.51	0.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.40	0.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.83	0.91	0.96
WACC / Discount Rate	6.43%	6.43%	6.43%
Growth Rate	3.62%	4.62%	5.62%
Fair Value	$30.72	$52.68	$125.72
Upside / Downside	-13.37%	48.55%	254.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	450.38	471.17	492.93	515.70	539.51	564.43	581.36
Payout Ratio	49.15%	57.32%	65.49%	73.66%	81.83%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	221.34	270.06	322.81	379.85	441.48	507.99	537.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.43%	6.43%	6.43%
Growth Rate	3.62%	4.62%	5.62%
Year 1 PV (M)	251.32	253.75	256.18
Year 2 PV (M)	279.57	285.00	290.47
Year 3 PV (M)	306.16	315.11	324.23
Year 4 PV (M)	331.14	344.11	357.46
Year 5 PV (M)	354.60	372.04	390.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,953.31	11,492.16	12,052.00
Equity Value (M)	12,476.11	13,062.17	13,670.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	432.67	432.67	432.67
Fair Value	$28.84	$30.19	$31.60
Upside / Downside	-18.68%	-14.86%	-10.90%

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Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd. (603868.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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