DDM Analysis: 603867.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$112.40 - $226.31	$212.09
Multi-Stage	$34.90 - $38.20	$36.52
Blended Fair Value	$124.30
Current Price	$33.20
Upside	274.41%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	21.63%	12.01%	0.58	0.53	0.42	0.34	0.21	0.22	0.18	0.16	0.12	0.14
YoY Growth	-	-	9.38%	26.72%	22.66%	64.15%	-4.63%	20.62%	11.58%	37.85%	-18.33%	-22.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.26%	1.91%	1.17%	1.43%	1.17%	0.88%	1.00%	0.90%	0.65%	0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	231.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	90.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)	141.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	46.34	28.96	17.38
Cash Retained (M)	141.70	141.70	141.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-46.34	-28.96	-17.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	95.36	112.74	124.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	203.61	203.61	203.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.47	0.55	0.61
LTM Dividend per Share	0.44	0.44	0.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.47	0.55	0.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.91	1.00	1.05
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$112.40	$212.09	$226.31
Upside / Downside	238.57%	538.83%	581.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	231.70	246.77	262.81	279.89	298.08	317.46	326.98
Payout Ratio	38.85%	49.08%	59.31%	69.54%	79.77%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	90.01	121.10	155.86	194.63	237.78	285.71	302.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	112.80	113.87	114.94
Year 2 PV (M)	135.22	137.79	140.39
Year 3 PV (M)	157.27	161.79	166.39
Year 4 PV (M)	178.96	185.84	192.92
Year 5 PV (M)	200.29	209.96	220.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,320.83	6,626.12	6,943.11
Equity Value (M)	7,105.36	7,435.38	7,777.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	203.61	203.61	203.61
Fair Value	$34.90	$36.52	$38.20
Upside / Downside	5.11%	9.99%	15.06%

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Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.,Ltd (603867.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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