Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Fujian Haixia Environmental Protection Group Co.,Ltd. (603817.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.76 - $77.09$72.25
Multi-Stage$11.96 - $13.09$12.52
Blended Fair Value$42.38
Current Price$6.22
Upside581.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.12%-1.01%0.230.050.050.050.050.040.020.060.050.03
YoY Growth--322.33%0.71%13.80%0.05%11.52%126.09%-67.14%11.35%92.11%-89.47%
Dividend Yield--4.18%0.99%0.92%0.73%0.76%0.75%0.23%0.58%0.23%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)213.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)142.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.6726.6716.00
Cash Retained (M)142.97142.97142.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.67-26.67-16.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)100.30116.30126.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)550.38550.38550.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.76$72.25$77.09
Upside / Downside539.15%1,061.53%1,139.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)213.35227.22241.99257.72274.47292.31301.08
Payout Ratio32.99%44.39%55.79%67.19%78.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.38100.86135.01173.17215.73263.08278.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)93.9794.8695.75
Year 2 PV (M)117.20119.43121.68
Year 3 PV (M)140.06144.08148.18
Year 4 PV (M)162.56168.81175.24
Year 5 PV (M)184.70193.62202.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,884.046,168.246,463.32
Equity Value (M)6,582.536,889.047,207.06
Shares Outstanding (M)550.38550.38550.38
Fair Value$11.96$12.52$13.09
Upside / Downside92.28%101.24%110.53%

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