DDM Analysis: 603809.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$32.27 - $78.88	$73.92
Multi-Stage	$11.58 - $12.67	$12.12
Blended Fair Value	$43.02
Current Price	$16.63
Upside	158.69%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.83%	12.70%	0.16	0.15	0.20	0.11	0.07	0.10	0.14	0.01	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	7.14%	-27.19%	78.43%	54.84%	-29.18%	-24.89%	1,795.08%	283.01%	1,017.20%	-99.64%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.26%	2.77%	3.29%	1.77%	1.28%	3.28%	3.80%	0.16%	0.04%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	344.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	167.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)	176.27

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	68.80	43.00	25.80
Cash Retained (M)	176.27	176.27	176.27
(-) Cash Required (M)	-68.80	-43.00	-25.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	107.47	133.27	150.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	867.34	867.34	867.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.15	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.15	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.32	0.35	0.37
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$32.27	$73.92	$78.88
Upside / Downside	94.04%	344.50%	374.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	344.00	366.36	390.18	415.54	442.55	471.31	485.45
Payout Ratio	48.76%	57.01%	65.26%	73.50%	81.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	167.73	208.85	254.61	305.44	361.79	424.18	449.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	194.20	196.04	197.88
Year 2 PV (M)	220.13	224.32	228.56
Year 3 PV (M)	245.54	252.59	259.77
Year 4 PV (M)	270.43	280.83	291.53
Year 5 PV (M)	294.82	309.06	323.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,822.91	9,249.06	9,691.52
Equity Value (M)	10,048.03	10,511.90	10,993.10
Shares Outstanding (M)	867.34	867.34	867.34
Fair Value	$11.58	$12.12	$12.67
Upside / Downside	-30.34%	-27.12%	-23.79%

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Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co., Ltd. (603809.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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