DDM Analysis: 603535.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.94 - $10.02	$7.72
Multi-Stage	$4.76 - $5.19	$4.98
Blended Fair Value	$6.35
Current Price	$11.73
Upside	-45.88%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	17.72%	97.67%	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	22.42%	20.68%	12.54%	22.67%	10.83%	-50.00%	2,863.55%	-31.98%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.96%	0.98%	0.71%	0.58%	0.42%	0.79%	1.12%	0.03%	0.05%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	187.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	37.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)	149.95

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	37.47	23.42	14.05
Cash Retained (M)	149.95	149.95	149.95
(-) Cash Required (M)	-37.47	-23.42	-14.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	112.48	126.53	135.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	401.53	401.53	401.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.28	0.32	0.34
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.28	0.32	0.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.37	0.41	0.43
WACC / Discount Rate	12.13%	12.13%	12.13%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$5.94	$7.72	$10.02
Upside / Downside	-49.38%	-34.18%	-14.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	187.37	199.55	212.52	226.34	241.05	256.72	264.42
Payout Ratio	19.97%	33.98%	47.98%	61.99%	75.99%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	37.42	67.80	101.97	140.30	183.18	231.05	244.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	12.13%	12.13%	12.13%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	59.90	60.47	61.03
Year 2 PV (M)	79.59	81.10	82.63
Year 3 PV (M)	96.73	99.51	102.34
Year 4 PV (M)	111.58	115.87	120.28
Year 5 PV (M)	124.32	130.33	136.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,441.09	1,510.70	1,582.97
Equity Value (M)	1,913.21	1,997.97	2,085.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	401.53	401.53	401.53
Fair Value	$4.76	$4.98	$5.19
Upside / Downside	-59.38%	-57.58%	-55.71%

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Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.,Ltd. (603535.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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