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Definitive Analysis

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Anbang Save-Guard Group Co.,Ltd. (603373.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.54 - $239.15$84.21
Multi-Stage$32.49 - $35.51$33.97
Blended Fair Value$59.09
Current Price$47.09
Upside25.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS15.09%0.00%0.540.020.020.300.300.270.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--2,675.15%-7.31%-93.07%-0.97%14.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.80%0.05%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)116.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.8816.189.71
Cash Retained (M)12.6812.6812.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.88-16.18-9.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)-13.21-3.502.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)106.57106.57106.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share1.101.101.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate4.46%5.46%6.46%
Fair Value$43.54$84.21$239.15
Upside / Downside-7.54%78.82%407.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129.41136.47143.91151.76160.04168.77173.83
Payout Ratio90.20%90.16%90.12%90.08%90.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)116.73123.04129.70136.71144.10151.89160.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate4.46%5.46%6.46%
Year 1 PV (M)114.13115.22116.32
Year 2 PV (M)111.59113.74115.90
Year 3 PV (M)109.10112.27115.49
Year 4 PV (M)106.67110.82115.08
Year 5 PV (M)104.30109.39114.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,916.343,058.643,206.44
Equity Value (M)3,462.143,620.073,783.90
Shares Outstanding (M)106.57106.57106.57
Fair Value$32.49$33.97$35.51
Upside / Downside-31.01%-27.86%-24.60%

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