Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Huada Automotive Technology Corp.,Ltd (603358.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.48 - $182.14$170.69
Multi-Stage$26.94 - $29.46$28.18
Blended Fair Value$99.44
Current Price$42.55
Upside133.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.64%10.27%0.370.320.330.300.210.210.340.240.130.13
YoY Growth--17.79%-3.00%9.07%44.41%0.78%-38.93%41.60%81.33%0.00%-6.51%
Dividend Yield--1.03%1.45%1.67%1.40%1.28%2.06%3.28%1.88%0.57%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)418.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.6352.2731.36
Cash Retained (M)170.08170.08170.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.63-52.27-31.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.45117.81138.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)456.55456.55456.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.48$170.69$182.14
Upside / Downside75.04%301.16%328.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)418.14445.32474.27505.09537.92572.89590.08
Payout Ratio59.33%65.46%71.60%77.73%83.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.06291.51339.55392.61451.13515.60545.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)271.05273.62276.19
Year 2 PV (M)293.56299.16304.80
Year 3 PV (M)315.61324.68333.91
Year 4 PV (M)337.21350.18363.51
Year 5 PV (M)358.35375.66393.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,722.7611,240.6711,778.41
Equity Value (M)12,298.5412,863.9613,450.45
Shares Outstanding (M)456.55456.55456.55
Fair Value$26.94$28.18$29.46
Upside / Downside-36.69%-33.78%-30.76%

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