DDM Analysis: 603268.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$18.78 - $25.31	$22.12
Multi-Stage	$27.94 - $30.74	$29.31
Blended Fair Value	$25.72
Current Price	$48.05
Upside	-46.48%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-26.05%	-2.93%	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.10	0.11	0.07	0.03	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-29.35%	-26.41%	3.63%	-24.14%	-45.91%	-8.18%	47.94%	173.42%	-5.00%	-4.76%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.07%	0.17%	0.30%	0.17%	0.31%	0.70%	0.56%	0.39%	0.08%	0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,255.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	132.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,123.01

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	251.00	156.88	94.13
Cash Retained (M)	1,123.01	1,123.01	1,123.01
(-) Cash Required (M)	-251.00	-156.88	-94.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	872.01	966.14	1,028.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	315.37	315.37	315.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.77	3.06	3.26
LTM Dividend per Share	0.42	0.42	0.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.77	3.06	3.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.18	3.48	3.68
WACC / Discount Rate	11.19%	11.19%	11.19%
Growth Rate	-4.93%	-3.93%	-2.93%
Fair Value	$18.78	$22.12	$25.31
Upside / Downside	-60.92%	-53.96%	-47.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,255.02	1,205.72	1,158.36	1,112.85	1,069.14	1,027.14	1,057.95
Payout Ratio	10.52%	26.41%	42.31%	58.21%	74.10%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	132.00	318.48	490.11	647.76	792.27	924.43	978.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	11.19%	11.19%	11.19%
Growth Rate	-4.93%	-3.93%	-2.93%
Year 1 PV (M)	283.44	286.42	289.41
Year 2 PV (M)	388.20	396.41	404.70
Year 3 PV (M)	456.62	471.18	486.05
Year 4 PV (M)	497.04	518.29	540.21
Year 5 PV (M)	516.15	543.87	572.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,669.56	7,027.78	7,401.23
Equity Value (M)	8,811.02	9,243.96	9,694.37
Shares Outstanding (M)	315.37	315.37	315.37
Fair Value	$27.94	$29.31	$30.74
Upside / Downside	-41.85%	-39.00%	-36.03%

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Sector

Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. (603268.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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