Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xinjiang Xuefeng Sci-Tech(Group)Co.,Ltd (603227.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.82 - $85.55$80.17
Multi-Stage$12.76 - $13.96$13.35
Blended Fair Value$46.76
Current Price$9.10
Upside413.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS71.43%13.72%0.270.190.070.340.070.020.030.020.090.10
YoY Growth--47.63%165.43%-79.58%413.31%260.43%-28.42%12.81%-73.16%-16.27%34.60%
Dividend Yield--3.07%2.54%0.81%5.10%1.36%0.46%0.53%0.45%0.78%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)460.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)228.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)231.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.0457.5234.51
Cash Retained (M)231.70231.70231.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.04-57.52-34.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)139.66174.18197.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,069.831,069.831,069.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.82$80.17$85.55
Upside / Downside304.58%780.98%840.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)460.19490.10521.96555.89592.02630.50649.41
Payout Ratio49.65%57.72%65.79%73.86%81.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)228.49282.89343.40410.58485.04567.45600.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)263.16265.66268.15
Year 2 PV (M)297.18302.84308.55
Year 3 PV (M)330.54340.03349.70
Year 4 PV (M)363.26377.23391.60
Year 5 PV (M)395.35414.44434.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,005.3712,585.2313,187.29
Equity Value (M)13,654.8614,285.4314,939.56
Shares Outstanding (M)1,069.831,069.831,069.83
Fair Value$12.76$13.35$13.96
Upside / Downside40.26%46.74%53.45%

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