Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Quick Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. (603203.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.20 - $198.81$186.31
Multi-Stage$29.24 - $31.99$30.59
Blended Fair Value$108.45
Current Price$32.73
Upside231.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.92%17.30%0.601.011.000.510.130.190.160.170.330.24
YoY Growth---40.09%0.56%97.96%281.38%-30.41%17.71%-2.93%-50.00%41.18%93.18%
Dividend Yield--2.40%4.97%2.92%2.23%0.82%1.17%0.99%0.89%1.57%2.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)247.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)127.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)120.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.5530.9718.58
Cash Retained (M)120.07120.07120.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.55-30.97-18.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)70.5289.10101.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)247.83247.83247.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.360.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.360.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.20$186.31$198.81
Upside / Downside148.09%469.25%507.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)247.75263.86281.01299.27318.73339.44349.63
Payout Ratio51.54%59.23%66.92%74.61%82.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)127.68156.28188.05223.30262.33305.50323.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)145.31146.69148.06
Year 2 PV (M)162.58165.68168.80
Year 3 PV (M)179.50184.66189.91
Year 4 PV (M)196.08203.62211.38
Year 5 PV (M)212.31222.57233.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,350.786,657.526,976.01
Equity Value (M)7,246.567,580.737,927.37
Shares Outstanding (M)247.83247.83247.83
Fair Value$29.24$30.59$31.99
Upside / Downside-10.66%-6.54%-2.27%

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