DDM Analysis: 603187.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$105.58 - $197.93	$185.49
Multi-Stage	$31.31 - $34.26	$32.76
Blended Fair Value	$109.12
Current Price	$15.06
Upside	624.57%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	34.41%	24.82%	0.55	0.25	0.19	0.27	0.18	0.12	0.00	0.08	0.09	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	118.02%	31.69%	-30.10%	54.50%	41.50%	5,586.28%	-97.38%	-6.30%	-4.34%	56.67%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.88%	1.60%	1.00%	1.26%	0.66%	1.09%	0.02%	0.69%	0.74%	0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	382.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	191.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)	191.15

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	76.46	47.79	28.67
Cash Retained (M)	191.15	191.15	191.15
(-) Cash Required (M)	-76.46	-47.79	-28.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	114.69	143.36	162.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	384.12	384.12	384.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.37	0.42
LTM Dividend per Share	0.50	0.50	0.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.37	0.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.80	0.87	0.92
WACC / Discount Rate	6.30%	6.30%	6.30%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$105.58	$185.49	$197.93
Upside / Downside	601.08%	1,131.65%	1,214.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	382.29	407.14	433.60	461.78	491.80	523.77	539.48
Payout Ratio	50.00%	58.00%	66.00%	74.00%	82.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	191.14	236.14	286.17	341.72	403.28	471.39	499.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.30%	6.30%	6.30%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	220.06	222.15	224.24
Year 2 PV (M)	248.54	253.28	258.06
Year 3 PV (M)	276.59	284.53	292.62
Year 4 PV (M)	304.20	315.89	327.93
Year 5 PV (M)	331.37	347.38	364.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,644.53	11,158.66	11,692.47
Equity Value (M)	12,025.29	12,581.89	13,159.31
Shares Outstanding (M)	384.12	384.12	384.12
Fair Value	$31.31	$32.76	$34.26
Upside / Downside	107.88%	117.50%	127.48%

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Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co., Ltd. (603187.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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