Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Liaoning Port Co., Ltd. (601880.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.69 - $1.09$0.87
Multi-Stage$0.86 - $0.94$0.90
Blended Fair Value$0.89
Current Price$1.74
Upside-49.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.09%-2.80%0.030.040.040.060.030.040.030.030.040.03
YoY Growth---23.96%-15.17%-22.23%120.49%-30.37%6.19%-0.43%-4.49%16.82%-17.12%
Dividend Yield--1.89%2.60%2.73%3.26%1.44%2.11%1.34%1.37%1.17%1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,498.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)197.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,301.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)299.73187.33112.40
Cash Retained (M)1,301.591,301.591,301.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-299.73-187.33-112.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,001.861,114.261,189.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,868.0222,868.0222,868.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.37%2.37%3.37%
Fair Value$0.69$0.87$1.09
Upside / Downside-60.50%-49.88%-37.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,498.661,534.221,570.631,607.901,646.051,685.111,735.66
Payout Ratio13.15%28.52%43.89%59.26%74.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)197.07437.56689.35952.841,228.451,516.601,605.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.37%2.37%3.37%
Year 1 PV (M)397.13401.04404.96
Year 2 PV (M)567.84579.10590.47
Year 3 PV (M)712.36733.65755.36
Year 4 PV (M)833.55866.93901.30
Year 5 PV (M)933.98980.961,029.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,196.0617,010.8117,858.03
Equity Value (M)19,640.9120,572.4921,539.93
Shares Outstanding (M)22,868.0222,868.0222,868.02
Fair Value$0.86$0.90$0.94
Upside / Downside-50.64%-48.30%-45.87%

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