DDM Analysis: 601326.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.34 - $3.50	$2.89
Multi-Stage	$5.57 - $6.14	$5.85
Blended Fair Value	$4.37
Current Price	$3.39
Upside	28.92%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.63%	-11.99%	0.11	0.11	0.11	0.12	0.14	0.14	0.17	0.08	0.23	0.43
YoY Growth	-	-	0.85%	3.51%	-9.28%	-17.24%	6.03%	-21.48%	122.20%	-66.61%	-45.69%	5.97%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.37%	3.40%	3.82%	4.30%	5.16%	5.11%	3.79%	1.40%	6.92%	12.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,616.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	527.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,088.72

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	323.34	202.09	121.25
Cash Retained (M)	1,088.72	1,088.72	1,088.72
(-) Cash Required (M)	-323.34	-202.09	-121.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	765.38	886.63	967.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,669.86	5,669.86	5,669.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.16	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.16	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.23	0.25	0.26
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	-2.96%	-1.96%	-0.96%
Fair Value	$2.34	$2.89	$3.50
Upside / Downside	-30.99%	-14.73%	3.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,616.71	1,585.10	1,554.11	1,523.72	1,493.93	1,464.72	1,508.66
Payout Ratio	32.66%	44.13%	55.59%	67.06%	78.53%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	527.99	699.45	864.01	1,021.86	1,173.21	1,318.25	1,395.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	-2.96%	-1.96%	-0.96%
Year 1 PV (M)	650.02	656.72	663.41
Year 2 PV (M)	746.20	761.65	777.27
Year 3 PV (M)	820.15	845.77	871.91
Year 4 PV (M)	875.08	911.71	949.48
Year 5 PV (M)	913.77	961.83	1,011.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	27,580.17	29,030.76	30,541.75
Equity Value (M)	31,585.39	33,168.44	34,815.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,669.86	5,669.86	5,669.86
Fair Value	$5.57	$5.85	$6.14
Upside / Downside	64.33%	72.57%	81.14%

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Qinhuangdao Port Co., Ltd. (601326.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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