DDM Analysis: 600962.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.50 - $28.27	$11.30
Multi-Stage	$7.84 - $8.61	$8.22
Blended Fair Value	$9.76
Current Price	$21.44
Upside	-54.47%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-2.82%	-4.87%	0.11	0.14	0.14	0.12	0.13	0.12	0.09	0.04	0.08	0.18
YoY Growth	-	-	-24.89%	-1.90%	17.43%	-6.53%	7.15%	40.39%	114.94%	-51.19%	-55.15%	5.98%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.83%	1.42%	0.97%	1.24%	1.78%	1.53%	0.88%	0.31%	0.48%	1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	56.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	17.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)	39.81

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.38	7.12	4.27
Cash Retained (M)	39.81	39.81	39.81
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.38	-7.12	-4.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	28.43	32.70	35.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	262.23	262.23	262.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.17	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	5.52%	5.52%	5.52%
Growth Rate	2.78%	3.78%	4.78%
Fair Value	$6.50	$11.30	$28.27
Upside / Downside	-69.66%	-47.29%	31.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	56.92	59.07	61.30	63.62	66.02	68.52	70.57
Payout Ratio	30.06%	42.05%	54.04%	66.02%	78.01%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	17.11	24.84	33.13	42.00	51.51	61.67	65.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.52%	5.52%	5.52%
Growth Rate	2.78%	3.78%	4.78%
Year 1 PV (M)	23.31	23.54	23.77
Year 2 PV (M)	29.18	29.75	30.33
Year 3 PV (M)	34.73	35.75	36.79
Year 4 PV (M)	39.96	41.54	43.17
Year 5 PV (M)	44.91	47.13	49.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,884.61	1,978.09	2,075.25
Equity Value (M)	2,056.69	2,155.80	2,258.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	262.23	262.23	262.23
Fair Value	$7.84	$8.22	$8.61
Upside / Downside	-63.42%	-61.66%	-59.82%

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SDIC Zhonglu Fruit Juice Co.,Ltd. (600962.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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