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SDIC Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (600886.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.60 - $110.22$44.39
Multi-Stage$23.25 - $25.47$24.34
Blended Fair Value$34.37
Current Price$13.06
Upside163.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.84%-7.46%0.480.900.850.990.971.000.940.941.001.14
YoY Growth---47.40%6.33%-13.62%1.74%-3.41%6.25%0.29%-5.65%-12.80%10.71%
Dividend Yield--3.30%6.11%7.87%10.55%9.75%12.63%11.23%13.24%13.25%16.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,582.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,379.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,202.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,316.45822.78493.67
Cash Retained (M)3,202.793,202.793,202.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,316.45-822.78-493.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,886.332,380.002,709.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,747.657,747.657,747.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.310.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.310.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Fair Value$25.60$44.39$110.22
Upside / Downside96.04%239.92%743.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,582.276,894.117,220.727,562.817,921.108,296.378,545.26
Payout Ratio51.34%59.07%66.81%74.54%82.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,379.484,072.614,823.835,637.086,516.577,466.747,904.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)3,787.843,824.353,860.87
Year 2 PV (M)4,172.824,253.654,335.27
Year 3 PV (M)4,535.354,667.784,802.76
Year 4 PV (M)4,876.345,067.105,263.41
Year 5 PV (M)5,196.675,452.015,717.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)157,562.93165,305.06173,348.59
Equity Value (M)180,131.94188,569.96197,328.19
Shares Outstanding (M)7,747.657,747.657,747.65
Fair Value$23.25$24.34$25.47
Upside / Downside78.02%86.36%95.02%

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